Developing Models of Disease Transmission: Insights from Ecological Studies of Insects and Their Baculoviruses

Mathematical models of disease outbreaks play a crucial role in guiding public health policy [1–3] and have provided critical insights into the ecological dynamics of pathogen-regulated populations [4,5]. Remarkably, the models used to describe epidemics among human populations have been quite successful at describing epizootics in many animal populations, including forestand crop-defoliating insect pests [6] whose population dynamics are often driven by baculoviruses [7]. Given the variety of insect species affected by baculoviruses and their ubiquity in nature, these viruses may help in the development of disease models that not only increase our understanding of disease transmission in general, but directly lead to better agricultural and forestry management through environmentally benign pest control.